Health crisis facing the class of 2035

The Youth Sport Trust has launched its latest Class of 2035 Report. It warns that urgent action must be taken to increase physical activity among children. If not, this generation will face poorer health, lower happiness and reduced life chances over the next decade and beyond. The charity’s warning comes after new insights from Sport England. Its findings underscore the enormous social and economic value of physical activity across England.

Youth Sport Trust partners with research agency Savanta to produce the Class of 2035 report. It uses artificial intelligence modelling and insights from children’s polling to project the consequences of current inactivity trends. It paints a concerning picture of a nation at a crossroads, with inactivity rising and wellbeing declining.

The economic value of active lifestyles

Sport England’s latest social value model estimates that active lifestyles provide £8bn in direct net savings to the healthcare system through illness prevention. It also places a wellbeing value of £14.1 billion on children and young people participation (ages 7-16). However, the Youth Sport Trust’s Class of 2035 report warns that without urgent action to increase children’s physical activity levels, the annual direct and indirect costs of inactivity are set to soar over the next decade.

Predictions for 2035

By 2035, if current trends continue:

• Almost half of children will spend three hours or more on screens for entertainment each day, up from 34 per cent in 2025
• More than a third will fail to be active for even 30 minutes a day, well short of the UK Chief Medical Officers’ guidance of 60 active minutes
• Obesity rates among 10-11 year olds will surge to 24 per cent by 2035, with more than 180,000 children classified as clinically obese
• Annual Type 2 diabetes diagnoses in children will double, reaching 500 new cases each year
• Schools will see declining attendance, engagement, and belonging among the least active pupils

Voices from the sector

Ali Oliver MBE, Chief Executive of the Youth Sport Trust, said:

“This report aims to paint a holistic picture and a stark warning about where we could end up without urgent action. Children must move, play and be active every day for normal physical, social, emotional and cognitive growth.

“Forthcoming changes to reimagine the Physical Education Curriculum, rebuild enrichment opportunities for every child and a new PE and School Sports Partnership Network supporting schools to deliver these can be the impetus for change; however, we cannot lose sight of the scale of the challenge.

“By 2035, without action to increase physical activity levels and improve access to the many benefits associated with active childhoods, we will have delivered a generation with poorer health, lower happiness, lower attainment and as a result, lower life chances than generations prior – a legacy of physical and mental neglect.” 

Read the full report here.

In response to the findings, the Youth Sport Trust has launched the Sport Changes Lives Commission, chaired by former Trustee, Dr Paula Franklin. The Commission brings together leading experts from healthcare, child development, and public health. They all share the charity’s concern about the impact of inactivity on young people. Commissioners will review the report’s evidence, share insights, and publish recommendations in early 2026 for addressing and reversing these trends.

Adella Dando, joint CEO at Liverpool School Sports Partnership (LSSP), welcomed the initiative, saying:

“At LSSP we welcome the launch of the Sport Changes Lives Commission in light of the concerning trends highlighted in the latest Class of 2035 report. The predicted rise in inactivity, obesity and poor mental health reinforces why providing high-quality PE, sport and physical activity opportunities has never been more important.

Through our work LSSP remains committed to helping schools across Liverpool ensure all children and young people lead happy, healthy and active lifestyles. But the scale of this challenge means we must work together as schools, communities and policymakers to prioritise daily movement and invest in children’s wellbeing for the future.”

Mat Shaw, CEO of Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children, said:

“Every child deserves the chance to move, play, and feel strong. We know that physical activity isn’t just about fitness and that it boosts confidence, emotional well-being, and even recovery.

“What’s less well known is how difficult it can be for children with a healthcare condition, a disability, or sensory or special educational need, to gain access to sport and exercise. Studies have shown that even children undergoing treatment for serious illnesses such as cancer can have better outcomes and recovery if they can stay active. Therefore, as a society we need to find a way to make sure all children, regardless of their backgrounds or their health conditions, can get involved in sports and exercise in a way that works for them.”

Dr Radha Modgil, Youth Sport Trust Health & Wellbeing Champion said: 

“My hope for the commission is that it will trigger action and outcomes that support every child to have the opportunity to have sport, play and physical activity as a constant friend and companion throughout their lives – one that they can turn to for their physical, mental and emotional wellbeing.”

A call for strategic investment

The Class of 2035 report warns that without urgent action to boost physical activity among children, the UK faces a future marked by rising obesity, poor mental health, and reduced life chances. The report calls for bold investment in PE, sport, and daily movement. Initiatives like the Sport Changes Lives Commission offer hope, but success will depend on schools, communities, and policymakers working together to prioritise children’s wellbeing now.