Early years recruitment may have stalled

Government expansion plans at risk

A new study is warning that the government’s plans for free childcare could struggle unless growth in early years staffing is reinvigorated.

The Department for Education had estimated the early years workforce would have to increase by 35,000 staff between December 2023 and September 2025 to meet the needs of the expanded entitlement. In September 2025, free childcare entitlement extended from 15 to 30 hours for eligible working families in England with children aged between nine months and three years.

Places are growing faster than staff

Analysis by NFER shows that early years places increased by nearly 20,000 between 2023 and 2024. This suggests progress toward delivering the national entitlement. However, provider survey data estimates the workforce grew by only around 600 between 2024 and 2025. This highlights a widening gap between demand and staffing.

However, it is possible that a further recruitment surge over the summer may have considerably closed this gap. The summer is a period not captured by the study. There is also uncertainty associated with the estimated staff numbers since they are from a large-scale survey rather than a census.

The ‘Early Years Workforce in England Annual Report 2026’ by NFER was funded by the Nuffield Foundation. It also emphasises a strong link between higher qualification levels among early years staff and the quality of provision and children’s outcomes.

Qualifications remain low across the sector

The research highlights that the government’s ‘Best Start in Life’ strategy commits to creating clear career pathways and training routes to help teachers progress and achieve higher level qualifications.

However, the proportion of staff qualified to level 4 or above (higher education) remains relatively low. They are just a quarter of the workforce. A significant minority hold level 2 qualifications (GCSE equivalents) or below. This includes 15 per cent of staff in school-based settings, 20 per cent in group-based providers, and 24 per cent of childminders.

The report recommends that the government should offer greater availability of training and professional development. It should also carefully explore the role of regulation in providing clear opportunities for career progression as well as a pay structure that rewards higher qualification levels. 

Expert reactions

NFER education workforce lead, Jack Worth, said:

“It is important to acknowledge that meeting recruitment needs isn’t just about hitting the targets. To ensure that children receive the best start in life, more must be done to encourage those with higher levels of qualifications to enter the sector and stay, and provide opportunities for all staff to progress their careers.”

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, said:

“Our members in early years settings tell us they are finding it increasingly hard to attract and retain staff. This clearly needs to be addressed, both in finding enough appropriately qualified staff; and through a clear workforce strategy, backed both by proper funding and political commitment to ensure it can be delivered.

“To resolve the early years workforce crisis, we need to consider what levers would help in raising the profession’s status, such as a minimum level of qualification.”

Emily Tanner, education programme head at the Nuffield Foundation, said:

“Parents need access to childcare that they can trust, and which provides high quality early learning. Tackling the issues that prevent the early years workforce from both growing in size and developing the skills needed to offer the best possible support for children will be key to making the entitlement as beneficial as possible for families.”

Further findings

• Pay gaps remain large, especially for highly qualified staff. Early years workers earn around 30 per cent less than similar workers. The gap for higher‑qualified staff has grown from 34 per cent (2021/22–2023/24) to 39 per cent in 2024/25.
• Regional staffing pressures vary. The South West, West Midlands and North East show the biggest gaps between expected and actual workforce growth. Yorkshire and Humberside appears to have exceeded estimated staffing needs.
• Career progression is limited, particularly for highly qualified workers. In 2024, 53 per cent of early years staff reported progression opportunities compared with 56 per cent of similar workers. But, only 44 per cent of higher‑qualified staff reported opportunities (vs 58 per cent of similar workers). This reduces incentives to upskill.
• Workplace representation and wellbeing are higher in early years settings. Staff report stronger involvement in decision‑making, lower anxiety, higher life satisfaction, and a greater sense of purpose. These wellbeing differences are increasing over time.

What comes next

The Early Years Workforce in England Annual Report 2026 is the first piece in a five-part series on the education workforce. Over the next month, NFER will publish an overview report that assesses the challenges across the education workforce as a whole in England. It will examine in particular:

• further education teachers
• the school support staff workforce
• the school teacher workforce